The Myanmar Crisis: India’s Dilemma of Democracy vs. Stability

Myanmar is India’s gateway to Southeast Asia. But the 2021 military coup put us in a bind. On one hand, India is the world’s largest democracy and morally should condemn the junta. On the other hand, we have a 1,600-km border with Myanmar. We need their cooperation to fight insurgent groups that hide in their jungles (like the NSCN). Plus, we have massive infrastructure projects (Kaladan project) stuck because of the instability. India’s response has been muted. We aren’t openly supporting the junta, but we also aren’t supporting the pro-democracy forces as aggressively as the West wants. It’s a typical ‘neighborhood first’ realism: stability matters more than ideology when the instability can spill over into Mizoram and Manipur. It’s a tragic situation, but from a purely strategic view, India is playing the long game, waiting to see who comes out on top.